Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 0.047459 0.054366 0.061555 0.069568 0.078218 0.087246 0.097352
2025-03-23 0.037654 0.047896 0.059233 0.072566 0.087677 0.104139 0.123301
2025-03-30 0.030587 0.042764 0.056981 0.074457 0.095027 0.118167 0.145861
2025-04-06 0.026174 0.039774 0.056396 0.077575 0.103253 0.132840 0.168982
2025-04-13 0.021386 0.035483 0.053533 0.077356 0.107055 0.142037 0.185555
2025-04-20 0.019779 0.035039 0.055256 0.082600 0.117337 0.158856 0.211124
2025-04-27 0.016027 0.031071 0.051926 0.081039 0.118909 0.164992 0.223840
2025-05-04 0.014310 0.029784 0.051993 0.083728 0.125718 0.177460 0.244196
2025-05-11 0.011909 0.027085 0.049807 0.083175 0.128191 0.184456 0.257829
2025-05-18 0.010673 0.026069 0.049895 0.085615 0.134503 0.196242 0.277390
2025-05-25 0.009443 0.024875 0.049582 0.087399 0.139892 0.206847 0.295524
2025-06-01 0.007533 0.022136 0.046661 0.085264 0.139860 0.210410 0.304765
2025-06-08 0.005650 0.019148 0.043206 0.082360 0.138945 0.213153 0.313494
2025-06-15 0.005047 0.018666 0.043807 0.085504 0.146489 0.227114 0.336775
2025-06-22 0.004346 0.017819 0.043706 0.087548 0.152508 0.239134 0.357701
2025-06-29 0.003923 0.017527 0.044521 0.090989 0.160530 0.253876 0.382247
2025-07-06 0.003108 0.016033 0.043044 0.090742 0.163222 0.261484 0.397582
2025-07-13 0.003063 0.016592 0.045348 0.096540 0.174704 0.281000 0.428549
2025-07-20 0.002274 0.014786 0.043051 0.094814 0.175162 0.285582 0.439999
2025-07-27 0.002015 0.014504 0.043645 0.097786 0.182524 0.299584 0.463889
2025-08-03 0.001523 0.013229 0.042134 0.097175 0.184517 0.306223 0.478080
2025-08-10 0.001325 0.012939 0.042596 0.099869 0.191464 0.319711 0.501409
2025-08-17 0.001109 0.012478 0.042648 0.101836 0.197312 0.331702 0.522799